Forensic criminologist issues warning over the 8 stages of coercive control that eventually can lead to murder

Warning: This article contains discussion of domestic violence, violence against women and murder which some readers may find distressing

A forensic criminologist has detailed a 'homicide timeline' that outlines the eight stages of coercive control that can eventually lead to murder.

Violence against women and girls has been declared a 'national emergency' by police in the UK after it was revealed that two million women are estimated to be victims of violence perpetrated by men each year.

And in the last few years, there have been many devastating cases of violence that have lead to murder.

Take Sarah Everard for example, who was kidnapped, raped and murdered by Met police officer Wayne Couzens when she was walking home from a friend's house in 2021.

And the more recent Southport stabbing attack, which saw now-18-year-old Axel Rudakubana storm into a Taylor Swift-themed dance class last year and murder three girls between the ages of six and nine, as well as injure many other young girls and women.

But there are also many cases of violence against girls and women that come from those close to them - in particular, their male partners.

Sarah Everard's murder in 2021 triggered a nationwide outcry over violence against women and girls (Hollie Adams/Getty Images)

Last year, Kyle Clifford attacked and murdered his ex-partner Louise Hunt, her sister Hannah and her mother Carol after she ended their relationship.

After Clifford was sentenced to a whole life order for his heinous crimes earlier this month, the discussion around violence against women, domestic violence and coercive control has never been louder.

The release of Netflix's Adolescence has also arguably contributed to this discussion, with the 'manosphere' and 'incel culture' having been explored in depth.

Back in 2019, Professor Jane Monckton-Smith OBE, a forensic criminologist and Professor of Public Protection at the University of Gloucestershire, authored a theoretical framework for tracking homicide risk in cases of coercive control and stalking.

Professor Monckton-Smith and her team have come up with eight stages based on research which looked at over 400 cases of intimate partner homicide to 'identify a common behavioural pattern that can be used in a practical way by professionals to assess threat and risk'.

Professor Jane Monckton-Smith OBE has published an eight-stage timeline showing how coercive control can lead to murder (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

Stage one: History

This is a pre-relationship history of stalking or abuse and controlling behaviours.

Stage two: Develops quickly

This is when the romance moves and develops very fast, and suddenly becomes a serious relationship.

Stage three: Coercive control

The relationship becomes dominated by violence and coercive control, which is an act or a pattern of acts of assault, threats, humiliation and intimidation or other abuse that is used to harm, punish, or frighten their victim, per Women's Aid.

Stage four: Trigger

A trigger threatens the perpetrator’s control, such as separation or threats of separation. This could prompt retaliation or revenge on the victim.

Stage five: Escalation

This is when an increase is seen in the frequency or severity of the perpetrator's tactics, such as threatening suicide, begging, acts of violence or stalking. Attempts to reinstate control are also made.

Stage six: A change in thinking or homicidal ideation

Feelings of revenge, injustice or humiliation may drive the perpetrator to resolve issues through violence, serious harm or homicide.

Stage seven: Planning

This is when the perpetrator will begin planning their attack, which may see them buy weapons, create opportunities to get the victim alone, or research ways of committing a homicide.

Stage eight: Homicide

This is the final and most devastating stage of the timeline.

The perpetrator takes the life of the victim, and will possibly hurt others such as family members of the victim. They may also stage a suicide or a missing person.

At the end of 2023, the Office for National Statistics published its annual domestic abuse data bulletin, with figures for the year ending March 2023 showing that one in four women (27 percent) experienced domestic abuse since the age of 16.

It also showed that an estimated 1.4m women experienced domestic abuse in the previous year.

If you are experiencing domestic violence, please know that you are not alone. You can talk in confidence to the national domestic violence helpline Refuge on 0808 2000 247, available 24/7, or via live chat, available 10am-10pm, Monday to Friday.

Or you can contact The Survivors Trust for free on 08088 010 818, available 10am-12.30pm, 1.30pm-3pm and 6pm-8pm Monday to Thursday, 10am-12.30pm and 1.30pm-3pm on Fridays, 10am-12.30pm on Saturdays and 6pm-8pm on Sundays.